Workshop

Policy analysis with incredible certitude (a Leverhulme Lecture by Charles Manski)

Date & Time

From: 9 February 2011
Until:

Type

Workshop

Venue

Brunei Gallery Lecture Theatre, SOAS
Thornhaugh Street,
Russell Square,
London,
WC1H 0XG

Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitude, dueling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation, illogical certitude, and media overreach.