Journal Article

Nonparametric regression for locally stationary time series


Michael Vogt

Published Date

1 October 2012


Journal Article

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coecients. We introduce a kernel-based method to estimate the time-varying regression function and provide asymptotic theory for our estimates. Moreover, we show that the main conditions of the theory are satised for a large class of nonlinear autoregressive processes with a time-varying regression function. Finally, we examine structured models where the regression function splits up into time-varying additive components. As will be seen, estimation in these models does not su er from the curse of dimensionality. We complement the technical analysis of the paper by an application to nancial data.