Working Paper

Asymptotic theory for differentiated products demand models with many markets


Joachim Freyberger

Published Date

2 August 2012


Working Paper (CWP19/12)

This paper develops asymptotic theory for estimated parameters in differentiated product demand systems with a fixed number of products, as the number of markets T increases, taking into account that the market shares are approximated by Monte Carlo integration. It is shown that the estimated parameters are √T consistent and asymptotically normal as long as the number of simulations R grows fast enough relative to T. Monte Carlo integration induces both additional variance as well additional bias terms in the asymptotic expansion of the estimator. If R does not increase as fast as T, the leading bias term dominates the leading variance term and the asymptotic distribution might not be centered at 0. This paper suggests methods to eliminate the leading bias term from the asymptotic expansion. Furthermore, an adjustment to the asymptotic variance is proposed that takes the leading variance term into account. Monte Carlo results show that these adjustments, which are easy to compute, should be used in applications to avoid severe undercoverage caused by the simulation error.