Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods

This work seeks to bridge the gap between two conflicting approaches in empirical macroeconomics, with ‘atheoretical’ econometric models on one side and “theoretical” models such as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models on the opposite side.

Indirect inference estimation

Indirect inference is a method to estimate parameters of models where the estimation criterion is difficult or impossible to evaluate directly. The method works by estimating parameters of a set of simpler models.

Indirect inference estimation

Indirect inference is a method to estimate parameters of models where the estimation criterion is difficult or impossible to evaluate directly. The method works by estimating parameters of a set of simpler models.

Demand estimation and firm pricing

We have been pursuing several projects that analyse consumer behaviour in supermarkets.

College enrolment and parental transfers

A key consideration when studying government policies towards higher education is how do the decisions of teenagers, the decisions of parents, the general economic environment and government policies interact to determine college enrolment decisions.

Random coefficient models

Unobserved heterogeneity is important in econometrics. People who look alike in terms of education, income, or other variables, make different choices about consumption, and savings. etc. Economic theory provides no guidance as to how unobserved heterogeneity should be modelled nor how important it might be.

Endogeneity and heterogeneity

Work on this topic aims to develop methods to improve our understanding of models that allow for non-linear relationships, unobserved multidimensional heterogeneity and endogenous variables.

Forecasting in macroeconomics

This work offers a review of forecasting methodologies and empirical applications that are useful for macroeconomists.

College enrolment and parental transfers

A key consideration when studying government policies towards higher education is how do the decisions of teenagers, the decisions of parents, the general economic environment and government policies interact to determine college enrolment decisions.

Intersection bounds: estimation and inference

Economic models based on weak but credible assumptions in some cases only deliver set identification, or bounds, on quantities of interest. Many such models quite naturally result in intersection bounds, where the model delivers a number of upper and lower bounds.

Random coefficient models

Unobserved heterogeneity is important in econometrics. People who look alike in terms of education, income, or other variables, make different choices about consumption, and savings. etc. Economic theory provides no guidance as to how unobserved heterogeneity should be modelled nor how important it might be.

Random coefficient models

Unobserved heterogeneity is important in econometrics. People who look alike in terms of education, income, or other variables, make different choices about consumption, and savings. etc. Economic theory provides no guidance as to how unobserved heterogeneity should be modelled nor how important it might be.

Demand estimation and firm pricing

We have been pursuing several projects that analyse consumer behaviour in supermarkets.

Econometric analysis for models with multiple equilibria

It is not uncommon for economic feedback models to produce more than one solution. In some cases, multiplicity can cause identification problems. In others, it can produce more variation in the data. In this work, we show formally that the latter is the case in many models of entry-exit of firms and in many peer effect models.

Random coefficient models

Unobserved heterogeneity is important in econometrics. People who look alike in terms of education, income, or other variables, make different choices about consumption, and savings. etc. Economic theory provides no guidance as to how unobserved heterogeneity should be modelled nor how important it might be.

Earnings dynamics with labour participation

This research uses indirect inference to model earnings dynamics with participation to assess how non-random selection into work affects estimation of earnings dynamics.

Forecasting in macroeconomics

This work offers a review of forecasting methodologies and empirical applications that are useful for macroeconomists.

Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods

This work seeks to bridge the gap between two conflicting approaches in empirical macroeconomics, with ‘atheoretical’ econometric models on one side and “theoretical” models such as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models on the opposite side.

Demand estimation and firm pricing

We have been pursuing several projects that analyse consumer behaviour in supermarkets.

College enrolment and parental transfers

A key consideration when studying government policies towards higher education is how do the decisions of teenagers, the decisions of parents, the general economic environment and government policies interact to determine college enrolment decisions.