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Policy analysis with incredible certitude

Authors: Charles F. Manski
Date: 10 February 2011
Type: cemmap Working Paper, CWP04/11
DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2011.0411

Abstract

Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitude, dueling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation, illogical certitude, and media overreach.

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Now published:
Charles F. Manski July 2011, Policy analysis with incredible certitude, Journal Article, Wiley Online Library

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